The Grey Market Premium (GMP) of an IPO is an informal indicator of how the market is perceiving the issue before its official listing. It represents the price at which IPO shares are being traded unofficially in the grey market, usually over and above the issue price. A positive GMP suggests that investors expect the stock to list at a premium, while a low or negative GMP may indicate muted or weak sentiment.
However, GMP should not be considered a guaranteed predictor of listing gains. Grey market trades are unofficial, unregulated, and driven largely by short-term demand, market sentiment, and liquidity among traders. The premium can fluctuate daily based on subscription levels, broader market conditions, and news flow around the company or sector.
Investors should therefore treat GMP only as a sentiment indicator rather than an investment signal. A strong GMP does not necessarily ensure long-term performance after listing, just as a weak GMP does not automatically imply poor fundamentals. Before applying for an IPO, investors should evaluate the company’s financials, valuation, growth prospects, and industry outlook, and align the decision with their investment horizon and risk appetite.